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EnglishHow to Choose Horses for the Grand National: A Practical Guide
Updated
There is no single formula that picks the Grand National winner, but a structured approach narrows the field to horses whose profile fits the race. Weigh form over the unique fences, proven stamina, handicap weight, jumping reliability, going preference and trainer/jockey record, then use odds and runner lists to test whether the market agrees with your reading. Treat tips and free-bet offers as optional extras, not the basis of a selection, and only stake what you can afford to lose. The steps below apply to the 2026 renewal at Aintree on Saturday, 10 April 2026, 16:00, and to future runnings.
Start with the race, not the horse
The Grand National is a handicap chase over roughly four and a quarter miles with 30 unique fences. That shape of race rewards a specific type of horse, so screen the field against the demands of the course before you look at prices.
The five factors worth weighing
| Factor | What to look for | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Stamina | Form or pedigree suggesting it stays well beyond three miles | The trip is far longer than a standard handicap chase |
| Jumping | Clean, fluent chase record; few unforced errors | The fences are the defining test of the race |
| Handicap weight | A rating and weight from which the horse has been competitive | The race is a handicap, so weight shapes every chance |
| Going | Form on the ground likely on the day | Soft and good ground produce different results |
| Connections | Trainer and jockey with a record in big-field staying chases | Experience of the occasion and the trip counts |
A horse that scores well on stamina and jumping but carries top weight is a different proposition from a lightly weighted horse with an unproven chase record. Decide which trade-offs you accept before you shortlist.
Use the runner list to filter, then the odds to compare
Work through the full list of declared runners rather than starting from the market. For each horse, note its chase form, best staying performance, weight and any going preference. This produces a shortlist of perhaps eight to twelve names. Only then check the odds: if your shortlist clusters at short prices, the market has already priced in the obvious cases; if a horse you rate is a bigger price, ask yourself what the market knows that you have missed.
Odds are a summary of other people's opinions, not a prediction. Use them to compare value across your shortlist, not to decide which horses are good.
Where tips and offers fit in
Tips and previews are useful for surfacing information you might have missed — a stable's form, a horse's prep run, a jockey booking — but they are opinions. Read two or three previews, note where they disagree, and check the underlying facts yourself.
The site also lists bookmaker welcome offers, such as bet £10 and receive free bets in return. These are new-customer promotions with conditions attached: minimum deposits, minimum odds, payment-method exclusions, expiry windows and stake-not-returned rules. Read the terms before claiming anything, and never let a free-bet offer push you into a bet you would not otherwise place. An offer is not a reason to back a horse.
A worked example of the process
Suppose you are building a shortlist for a renewal like 2026. You might set your filters as: at least one completed staying chase over three and a half miles, no more than two falls or unseats in its last ten chase starts, a handicap mark within the range that has produced recent placed horses, and form on the likely going. Applying those filters to the declared runners leaves a handful of candidates. You then compare their prices and decide whether any represents better value than the rest. If none does, the correct decision is to skip the race — a shortlist that produces no bet is a valid outcome.
Common pitfalls
- Backing a name rather than a profile. A famous yard or a popular horse is not a selection criterion on its own.
- Ignoring the going. A horse whose best form is on soft ground is a different bet if the forecast turns dry.
- Overweighting recent headlines. One bad run or one impressive win rarely tells the whole story; look at the season as a whole.
- Chasing free bets. Promotional credit expires and comes with stake and odds conditions; it should never expand your budget.
- Betting beyond your means. Set a spending limit before you study the race, and stop when you reach it.
Before you stake anything
Check the final declarations and the going on the day, since both can change your shortlist. Confirm the terms of any offer you use, including minimum odds and expiry. Bet only with money you can afford to lose, and use responsible-gambling tools such as deposit limits if you need them. The analysis is yours; the outcome is never certain.